Posts Tagged ‘NFL Draft’

Mel Kiper/Todd McShay = Jim Cramer?

April 22, 2010 Leave a comment

Ach! I love football. If you do you have to check out this piece on why NFL “draft gurus” are not really gurus at all.

The piece does a great job of reasoning with statistical evidence that most of these draftniks can talk a lot, but have little predictive power. Furthermore, whats worse is they aren’t held accountable for their actions. (At least, teams suffer for their poor drafts, these guys get even more face time on TV)

Look at that hair, Mel only uses the finest extra virgin olive oil. A man who wears his hair that way, is clearly versed in BS.

I wrote a comment myself:

Ever see Kiper and McShay? They are silly. These blowhards use terms like “most-NFL” ready and “can’t miss” as if they were actually omniscient beings. The even more funny thing is they hate each other so much; probably because they are both in on the secret that most of what comes out of their mouth is pure conjecture. Also, probably since Kiper was a one-man show for a while and loves to hear himself speak. (No man can wear that much hair gel and not be in love with himself) This is something most fans could do given the incredible amount of resources they have to evaluate talent and the fact their success rate rivals that of Jim Cramer.

Some of the smarter teams hedge their bets by stocking up on middle-round picks because the return on their investment is better. This is crucial especially considering you don’t need to pay a huge guaranteed contract to an unproven talent. I would argue this is similar to buying into a stock index but with the added benefit of a cheaper price.

I think we need some accountability, perhaps in the same way that website pitched a monkey to pick stocks against Cramer we could give the monkey a choice of Yes or No on McShay/Kiper’s choices for who deserves to be 1st round talent (ostensibly a franchise/pro-bowl player). Judging by NFL team’s success rates, I would say these clowns would fare no better.

I really want to do this. After McShay and Kiper come out with their final mocks get a house pet (Neil, your cat?) or something to simply to pick yes or no on whether these guys will actually pan out. We’d limit the experiment to the first round.  Since these players are picked this high to be “franchise players” or at least Pro-Bowl talents,  I don’t think this is unfair. Thoughts football fans?

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